589 new COVID-19 cases reported statewide Tuesday, six in Warren County

Mississippi’s seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases have held around 500 for about two weeks, higher than health officials would like to see.

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported six new COVID-19 cases in Warren County Tuesday and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,415, and the county’s death toll is 50.

Statewide, MSDH reported 589 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 97,638. The seven-day average of new cases is 517, about 76% of where it was a month ago.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported Tuesday that 36 additional Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 2,957. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

MSDH reported Tuesday that 21 deaths occurred between Sept. 20 and Sept. 28 in the counties below:

Fifteen COVID-19 related deaths occurred between July 31 and Sept. 25 and were identified from death certificate reports.

New cases and deaths were reported as of 6 p.m. Monday, Sept. 28. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continued to drop in September but now seem to be levelling off.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Friday, Sept. 25 (the most recent date MSDH has provided hospitalization statistics), is 601, about half of the late July peak of more than 1,200. The number includes 477 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 124 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 147 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 68 were on ventilators.

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 89,737 through Sunday, Sept. 27. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 91.9% of the cumulative 97,638 cases reported Tuesday, Sept. 29.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Tuesday, Sept. 8, was 1,341, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,291, or about 94.8% of the 1,415 cumulative cases reported as of Tuesday, Sept. 29. The county has an estimated 74 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Sunday, Sept. 27, is 785,465 or about 26.4% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) was 12.1% Monday according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating the state is not testing enough and case counts are probably underreported. Mississippi’s positivity rate had been the highest or among the highest in the nation for weeks. The national rate is 4.7%; 5% indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 125 Tuesday. About 40.9%, or 1,210, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 24, MSDH reported that two long-term facilities were under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks:

• Shady Lawn had 18 cases among staff, 36 cases among residents and 10 resident deaths.
• The Bluffs had 34 cases among staff, 51 cases among residents and five resident deaths.

A total of 24 deaths in the county were residents of LTC facilities.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.