COVID-19 cases continue to rise in Mississippi Monday

Sunday and Monday, Warren County reported 86 new COVID-19 cases and two new deaths. Cumulative totals in the county are 3,252 cases and 90 deaths.

Based on the first 11 days of January, Warren County could see more than 1,400 cases by the end of the month, eclipsing monthly totals so far.

Sunday and Monday, the Mississippi State Department of Health reported 3,442 new COVID-19 cases statewide and 41 deaths.

In the first 11 days of January, the state has reported 24,498 new cases, with two days of more than 3,000 cases. The state’s seven-day average of new cases is about 2,376 per day with 16,632 new cases reported, about 20% higher than a month ago. If current trends hold, the state is on track to see its worst month yet, with about 70,000 cases.

Warren County’s 14-day total of new cases is 686 with a daily average of 49 cases. The seven-day average is nearly 52 cases a day, with 361 cases reported in the past seven days. The county is on the governor’s list of COVID-19 hot spots that include all but four of Mississippi’s 82 counties — Claiborne, Issaquena, Sharkey and Tunica — three of which neighbor Warren.

COVID-19 is one of the state’s leading causes of death at this time, according to State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs. To see other causes of death in the state, including deaths from flu and pneumonia, click here.

The huge number of cases means a corresponding rise in the number of hospitalizations in the state. With hospitalizations for COVID-19 nearing 1,500, hospitals across the state — including Merit Health River Region in Vicksburg — are reporting that no ICU beds are available for any seriously ill or injured person, not just COVID-19 patients.

State health officials are strongly urging Mississippians not to hold or attend any gatherings that include people not in their immediate families. In addition, they urge wearing a mask in public, keeping 6 feet of social distance and maintaining good hand hygiene.

The virus nationwide

Nationally, the cumulative cases in the U.S. have soared to more than 22.4 million, with some sources putting the figure as high as 22.9 million. Numbers of new infections, hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise sharply.

The number of people who have died in the U.S. since the beginning of the crisis is about 374,428.

At least 1,777 people died of the virus Sunday in the U.S., and at least 208,338 new cases were reported. The numbers of new cases have increased about 38% in the last 14 days. The rate of deaths has also increased, by about 47% in the past two weeks, as has the rate of hospitalizations. About 129,229 people were in the hospital Sunday for COVID-19, an increase of 11% in the past two weeks.

Health officials from coast to coast are bracing for the coming spike in cases, hospitalizations and deaths after the year-end holidays.

The five worst-hit states are scattered around the country: Arizona, California, Oklahoma, Rhode Island and South Carolina are averaging the most daily new cases per person. Arizona is reporting more cases per capita than any other state at the moment. California continues to see extraordinary numbers of new cases, particularly the southern part of the state where emergency room have had to shut their doors for hours at a time. Nearly one in 10 people in Los Angles have tested positive.

In the U.S., at least eight states — Colorado, California, Florida, New York, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Texas and Connecticut — have confirmed a total of 63 cases of the COVID-19 variant first reported Dec. 8 in the U.K. It’s likely the variant has spread to other states as well. The variant is more contagious by about half but does not appear to be more severe or deadly. Regardless, because of its higher contagion rate, the country will see even higher rates of cases and deaths in the coming weeks and months.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are denying reports of a new variant originating in the U.S. The reports are based on speculation from the White House Coronavirus Task Force and Dr. Deborah Birx.

“To date, neither researchers nor analysts at C.D.C. have seen the emergence of a particular variant in the United States,” said Jason McDonald, a spokesman for the CDC, in a statement.

Local and statewide COVID-19 statistics for Monday, Jan. 11

In Warren County, MSDH reported 70 new COVID-19 cases Sunday and no new deaths, and 16 new cases Monday and two new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 3,252, and the county’s death toll is 90. The seven-day average of new cases in the county is about 52 per day, more than double the average of cases a month ago.

Statewide, MSDH reported 2,214 new COVID-19 cases Sunday and 1,227 Monday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 240,309. The seven-day average of new cases is 2,376 per day, about 21% higher than the seven-day average a month ago. In January, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are from 25 to 39 years old followed by those 50 to 64 years old.

MSDH reported Sunday that 22 more Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide and 19 Monday, bringing the cumulative number of deaths in the state to 5,186. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.2%. This rate drops when the number of cases is going up faster than the number of deaths.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. The current surge began in Mississippi in late October, and the state saw record deaths in December and again in January; 85 cases were reported Dec. 29 and 91 cases Jan. 9. Nearly 1,000 deaths were reported in December.

Of the 22 deaths MSDH reported Sunday, nine occurred between Jan. 6 and Jan. 9 in the following counties:

An additional 13 COVID-19 related deaths occurred between Dec. 23 and Jan. 5 and were identified from death certificate reports.

Of the 19 deaths reported Monday, 12 occurred between Dec. 31, 2020, and Jan. 9 in the following counties:

An additional seven COVID-19 related deaths occurred between Dec. 25, 2020, and Jan. 3 and were identified from death certificate reports.

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Saturday, Jan. 9, and Sunday, Jan. 10. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number has risen steadily since Nov. 4, 2020. COVID-19 hospitalizations threaten the state’s health care system as never before.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Friday, Jan. 8, was 1,460. The number includes 1,402 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 58 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 329 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 219 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 182,103 through Sunday, Jan. 3. It represents about 75.8% of the cumulative 240,309 reported as of Monday, Jan. 11.

The number of cumulative cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Monday, Dec. 21, was 2,327, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 2,237, or about 68.8% of the 3,252 cumulative cases reported as of Monday, Jan. 11. The county has an estimated 925 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Jan. 10, is 1,903,704 or about 64% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. MSDH reports statewide test results about once a week. Without daily updated numbers of tests, it is impossible to accurately calculate Mississippi’s positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average); however, the estimated rate was 23.3% Sunday, according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate was 13.2%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 221 Monday, unchanged since Friday. About 34.4%, or 1,783, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in LTC facilities is 9,780 Monday, about 4.1% of the state’s total cases.

A total of 37 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced that information with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data by provider here. The latest data available is for the week ending Dec. 27, 2020.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website or call the COVID-19 hotline seven days a week from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. at 877-978-6453.