December begins with record-breaking COVID-19 stats in Mississippi

Mississippi begins December breaking records for COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.

Tuesday, the Mississippi State Department of Health reported the seventh consecutive day of more than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases. The state’s seven-day average of new cases is over 1,400 per day, another record, with 9,867 new cases reported in the last week. The previous seven-day average high of 1,360 was set the last week in July.

More Mississippians are hospitalized with the virus than ever before, with 1,008 patients with confirmed cases of the virus reported Monday.

Nationally, about 168,000 new cases were reported Monday and at least 1,265 more people died of virus. While some progress in lowering case numbers has been seen in the Midwest, cases are surging almost everywhere else in the country.

In Warren County, MSDH reported 15 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday and one new death. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,802, and the county’s death toll is 58. The seven-day average of new cases is at 11.4, continuing the steady rise that began in November.

Statewide, MSDH reported 1,141 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 154,411. The seven-day average of new cases is 1409.6 per day, about 680 cases higher — nearly double — than the seven-day average a month ago, when the state’s numbers were already on the rise. The current averages exceed the numbers seen in July.

At the beginning of the crises, the age group with the most COVID-19 cases were those over 65. Now, most new cases are seen in younger people who are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. In September, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi were 18 to 24 years old. That has shifted to a slightly older group. In November, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are from 25 to 39 years old followed by those 50 to 64 years old.

MSDH reported Tuesday that 27 more Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,836. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.5%. This rate has dropped as the number of cases are going up faster than the number of deaths at this time.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day in Mississippi was 67 reported Aug. 25.

Of the 29 deaths MSDH reported Tuesday, 25 occurred between Nov.24 and Nov. 30 in the following counties:

Another four COVID-19 related deaths reported Tuesday occurred between Nov. 19 and Nov. 22 and were identified from death certificate reports.

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Monday, Nov. 30. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations tripled by late July.

Hospitalizations then steadily dropped through Oct. 3 when they began rising again along with increased cases. The last week in October, hospitalizations began levelling off; however, since Nov. 4 hospitals have seen a steady rise in COVID-19 patients once again.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Friday, Nov. 27, was 1,115, about 93% of the late July peak of about 1,200. The number includes 1,008 with confirmed cases of COVID-19, a record high, and 107 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 238 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 135 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 128,746 through Sunday, Nov. 29. It represents about 84% of the cumulative 154,411 cases reported as of Tuesday, Dec. 1.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Tuesday, Nov. 10, was 1,625, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,567, or about 87% of the 1,802 cumulative cases reported as of Tuesday, Dec. 1. The county has an estimated 177 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Nov. 28, is 1,315,279 or about 44.2% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. MSDH reports statewide test results once a week. Without daily updated numbers of tests, it is impossible to accurately calculate Mississippi’s positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average); however, the estimated rate was 21.1% Monday, according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 9.7%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 200 Tuesday, an increase of one since Monday. About 37.9%, or 1,453, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in LTC facilities is 7,724, about 5% of the state’s total cases.

A total of 26 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data by provider here. The latest data available is for the week ending Nov. 15.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.