Friday marks 30 days of fewer than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases reported in Mississippi

Friday is the 30th consecutive day of fewer than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases reported statewide in Mississippi.

The Mississippi State Department of Health has not updated county-level cases and deaths as of this writing. As of Thursday, Sept. 17, the cumulative number of cases in Warren County was 1,366, and the county’s death toll was 50.

Statewide, MSDH reported 497 new COVID-19 cases Friday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 92,432. The seven-day average of new cases is 465, about 66% of where it was a month ago.

MSDH reported Friday that 12 additional Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 2,792. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%.

MSDH has not reported where deaths were reported Friday as of this writing.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

New cases and deaths were reported as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 17. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continued to drop in September.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 16, is 622, showing a clear downward trend after peaking in late July at more than 1,200. The number includes 503 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 119 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 169 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 95 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 78,971 through Sunday, Sept. 13. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 85.9% of the cumulative 92,432 cases reported as of Friday, Sept. 18.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Friday, Aug. 28, was 1,293, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,243, or about 91% of the 1,366 cumulative cases reported as of Thursday, Sept. 17. The county has an estimated 73 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Tuesday, Sept. 15, is 667,785 or about 22.4% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) was 17.9% Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating Mississippi is not testing nearly enough, and results are probably an undercount of actual infections. Mississippi’s positivity rate has been the highest or among the highest in the nation for weeks. The national rate is 4.9%, with 5% indicating adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 131 Friday. About 41.4%, or 1,152, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 10, MSDH reported that two long-term facilities were under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks:

• Shady Lawn had 13 cases among staff, 33 cases among residents and nine resident deaths.
• The Bluffs had 31 cases among staff, 48 cases among residents and five resident deaths.

A total of 24 deaths in the county were residents of LTC facilities.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.