Mississippi and Warren County continue to see improving COVID-19 statistics Monday

With more than a month of consecutive days reporting fewer than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases statewide, all of Mississippi’s virus statistics continue to show improvement. Numbers of new cases and deaths are down along with hospitalizations. Estimated recoveries exceed 90% statewide and in Warren County, and even testing rates are within acceptable limits.

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported one new COVID-19 case in Warren County Sunday and no new cases Monday. The county reported no new deaths either day. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,381, and the county’s death toll is 50.

Statewide, MSDH reported 277 new COVID-19 cases Sunday and 192 Monday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 93,556. The seven-day average of new cases is 505, about 66% of where it was a month ago.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported Sunday that one additional Mississippian died of COVID-19 statewide and reported no deaths Monday. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 2,810. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

New cases and deaths were reported as of 6 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 19, for Sunday and Sunday, Sept. 20, for Monday. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continued to drop in September but now seem to be levelling off.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 20, is 621, about half of the late July peak of more than 1,200. The number includes 505 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 116 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 162 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 77 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 85,327 through Sunday, Sept. 20. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 91.2% of the cumulative 93,556 cases reported as of Monday, Sept. 21.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Monday, Aug. 31, was 1,314, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,264, or about 91.5% of the 1,381 cumulative cases reported as of Monday, Sept. 21. The county has an estimated 66 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Sunday, Sept. 20, is 749,810 or about 25.2% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) was 4.3% Sunday, according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating Mississippi is testing enough. Mississippi’s positivity rate had been the highest or among the highest in the nation for weeks. The national rate is 4.6%, with 5% indicating adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 129 Monday. About 41.4%, or 1,164, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 17, MSDH reported that two long-term facilities were under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks:

• Shady Lawn had 16 cases among staff, 36 cases among residents and 10 resident deaths.
• The Bluffs had 31 cases among staff, 51 cases among residents and five resident deaths.

A total of 24 deaths in the county were residents of LTC facilities.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.