Mississippi ends October with a 44% rise in new COVID-19 cases for the month

Mississippi ended the month of October with an increase of 44% in new COVID-19 cases from the previous month and a cumulative case total of more than 120,000 since the crises began. The Magnolia state reported 21,970 new COVID-19 cases during October, and the average number of new cases reported daily was 708.7.

The increase in new cases started becoming obvious around Oct. 10 when the seven-day average topped 600. It stayed above that for the remainder of the month, rising to almost 800 the last week. In comparison, during September Mississippi reported 15,240 cases, with a daily average of 508 cases.

Mississippi’s rise in new cases mirrors the rise seen across the nation, with more than 99,000 cases reported Friday, a global one-day record. While deaths have not risen as fast as new cases, yet, three states — Tennessee, Montana and New Mexico — reported record numbers of COVID-19 deaths Friday. Fourteen states reported record numbers of new cases.

In Warren County, the Mississippi State Department of Health reported five new COVID-19 cases Saturday and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,576, and the county’s death toll is 56. In October, Warren County reported 158 new cases and five deaths, compared with 104 new cases and five deaths reported in September. The rise in new cases over the last month is nearly 52%.

Statewide, MSDH reported 824 new COVID-19 cases Saturday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 120,160. The seven-day average of new cases is 724.6. The average of reported new cases for the month of October is 708.7, higher by 200.7 cases in September.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported Saturday that six more Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,334. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.8%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

The deaths MSDH reported Saturday occurred between Oct. 28 and Oct. 30 in the following counties:

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Friday, Oct. 30. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continued to drop in September but levelled off at the middle of the month. They dropped again through Oct. 3; however, hospitalizations began rising since then. They have leveled off this week.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Friday, Oct. 30, is 673, more than half of the late July peak of about 1,200. The number includes 595 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 78 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 171 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 76 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 101,336 through Sunday, Oct. 25. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 84.4 % of the cumulative 120,160 cases reported as of Saturday, Oct. 31.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Saturday, Oct. 10, was 1,467, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,411, or about 89.5% of the 1,571 cumulative cases reported as of Saturday, Oct. 31. The county has an estimated 109 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Oct. 24 (the latest testing results reported by MSDH), is 1,002,327 or about 33.7% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. Without an updated number of tests, it is impossible to accurately calculate Mississippi’s positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average); however, the rate was 6.8% Friday, according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 6.4%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities was 127 Saturday. About 39.6%, or 1,320, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

A total of 26 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data here. The latest data available is for the week ending Oct. 18.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.