Mississippi reports 675 new COVID-19 cases this weekend; 7-day average up 30% from last month

The number of new COVID-19 cases continues to rise across the U.S., with a 23% increase over the past week and two record-setting days. In Mississippi, the seven-day average is 30% higher now than it was one month ago.

Almost no state is immune to the rise, with 37 states reporting growing numbers of new cases and the other 13 relatively flat, according to Johns Hopkins University data. No state reported statistically significant COVID-19 decreases last week.

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported three new COVID-19 cases Sunday and Monday in Warren County and one new death identified from a death certificate report. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,551, and the county’s death toll is 56.

Statewide, MSDH reported 675 new COVID-19 cases Monday for Sunday and Monday, with 228 reported Sunday and 447 Monday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 115,763. The seven-day average of new cases is 739, higher by 226 cases or about 30% higher than a month ago.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recesntly, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported Monday that eight additional Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,263. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.8%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

Of the eight deaths MSDH reported Monday, four occurred between Oct. 11 and Oct. 25 in the following counties:

Another four COVID-19 related deaths occurred between Aug. 29 and Oct. 6 and were identified from death certificate reports.

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 24, and Sunday, Oct. 25. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continued to drop in September but levelled off at the middle of the month. They dropped again through Oct. 3; however, hospitalizations have been rising since then.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Friday, Oct. 23, is 679, more than half of the late July peak of about 1,200. The number includes 580 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 99 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 157 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 66 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 101,385 through Sunday, Oct. 25. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 87.6% of the cumulative 115,763 cases reported as of Monday, Oct. 26.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Monday, Oct. 5, was 1,431, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,375, or about 88.7% of the 1,551 cumulative cases reported as of Monday, Oct. 26. The county has an estimated 120 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Oct. 10 (the latest testing results reported by MSDH), is 900,479 or about 30.3% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. Without an updated number of tests, it is impossible to accurately calculate Mississippi’s positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average), however, the rate was 16.6% Thursday according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 6.2%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities was 133 Monday. About 40%, or 1,304, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

A total of 26 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data here. The latest data available is for the week ending Oct. 11.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.