Mississippi sees 13th consecutive day of more than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases Monday

Warren County’s seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases rose to 24.3 Monday, with 170 cases reported so far in December. The average is nearly five times higher than in early November.

Monday, Mississippi reported the 13th consecutive day of reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day, with three days of reporting more than 2,000 new cases. The state’s seven-day average of new cases in the state is over 1,800 per day, with nearly 13,000 new cases reported in the last week. The highest seven-day average in July was around 1,360 for the week ending July 30.

Hospitalizations are nearing the July high of around 1,250. Unlike the July surge, however, more patients are hospitalized with confirmed cases than ever before in the state.

Nationally, the cumulative cases in the U.S. have soared to over 14.8 million, and the rates of infection, hospitalization and deaths continue to rise. At least 1,111 people died of the virus Sunday and 173,457 new cases were reported. As expected, the rate of deaths is increasing steeply, even as the rate of new infections slows. Deaths have increased 48% in the past two weeks. The number of people hospitalized across the nation now exceeds 101,000.

In Warren County, MSDH reported 19 new COVID-19 cases Sunday and eight Monday. No new deaths were reported either day. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,957, and the county’s death toll is 59. The seven-day average of new cases in the county has risen to 24.3, nearly five times higher than in early November when the average was about five cases per day.

Statewide, MSDH reported 1,473 new COVID-19 cases Sunday and 1,263 cases Monday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 166,194. The seven-day average of new cases is 1,846.3 per day, about 1,028 cases higher than the seven-day average a month ago, when the state’s numbers were already on the rise. The current averages exceed the numbers seen at the height of the last surge in July.

At the beginning of the crises, the age group with the most COVID-19 cases were those over 65. Now, most new cases are seen in younger people who are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. In September, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi were 18 to 24 years old. That has shifted to a slightly older group. In November, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are from 25 to 39 years old followed by those 50 to 64 years old.

MSDH reported Sunday that 12 more Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. No deaths were reported Monday. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,961. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.5%. This rate has dropped as the number of cases are going up faster than the number of deaths at this time.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day in Mississippi was 67 reported Aug. 25.

Of the 12 deaths MSDH reported Sunday, eight occurred between Nov. 25 and Dec. 4 in the following counties:

An additional four COVID-19 related deaths occurred between Nov. 24 and Nov. 29 and were identified from death certificate reports.

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 5, and Sunday, Dec. 6. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations tripled by late July.

Hospitalizations then steadily dropped through Oct. 3 when they began rising again along with increased cases. The last week in October, hospitalizations began levelling off; however, since Nov. 4 hospitals have seen a steady rise in COVID-19 patients once again.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Friday, Dec. 4, was 1,157. The number includes 1,051 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 106 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 286 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 165 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 136,627 through Sunday, Dec. 6. It represents about 82.2% of the cumulative 166,194 cases reported as of Monday, Dec. 7.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Monday, Nov. 16, was 1,660, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,601, or about 81.8% of the 1,957 cumulative cases reported as of Monday, Dec. 7. The county has an estimated 297 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Dec. 5, is 1,436,626 or about 48.3% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. MSDH reports statewide test results once a week. Without daily updated numbers of tests, it is impossible to accurately calculate Mississippi’s positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average); however, the estimated rate was 27.2% Sunday, according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 10.4%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 202 Monday, an increase of two since Saturday. About 37.5%, or 1,485, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in LTC facilities is 8,050, less than 5% of the state’s total cases.

A total of 27 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data by provider here. The latest data available is for the week ending Nov. 22.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.