Mississippi sets another record for COVID-19 deaths and new cases Thursday

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Mississippi reports a one-day record number of deaths and new COVID-10 cases Thursday.

In Warren County, the Mississippi State Department of Health reports 33 new COVID-19 cases and no new deaths Thursday. The cumulative number of cases in the county to date is 930, and the county’s death toll is 24. The county has added 280 new cases in the past 14 days.

Statewide, MSDH reports 1,775 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 57,579. With new case counts over 1,200 for six of the last seven days, the seven-day average for new cases is 1,361.

MSDH reports Thursday that another 48 Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide, bringing the total number of deaths in the state to 1,611. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.8%, a rate that has held steady for several days.

The numbers of deaths can lag new cases by two weeks or more, which may be one reason deaths in the state had not risen dramatically until July 7 when 44 deaths were reported. In addition, most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported deaths in the following counties Thursday.

Twenty-three confirmed COVID-19 related deaths occurred between July 10 and July 27, identified from death certificate reports. The additional deaths were reported in the following counties:

Deaths and new cases were reported as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, July 29. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR tests) as of Wednesday, July 27, is 449,072 or about 15.1% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (current positive results to current tests) is about 21.7%, according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating Mississippi is not testing nearly enough, and results are probably an undercount of actual infections. A rate of 5% or less indicates adequate testing. Mississippi’s positivity rate is among the highest in the nation.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 197, a number that has been rising recently after having gone done for a while. About 44.8%, or 721, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. Thirteen of the 48 deaths reported Thursday were in LTC facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, July 23, MSDH reported that Shady Lawn Health and Rehabilitation, The Bluffs Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center, and Vicksburg Convalescent Center are under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks. Shady Lawn has seven COVID-19 cases among staff, 25 cases among residents and one resident death, The Bluffs has seven cases among staff and 15 among residents. Vicksburg Convalescent has one case among staff and two among residents. Deaths in the county include nine residents of Heritage House Nursing Center, which is no longer under investigation.

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 35,071 through Sunday, July 26. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 61% of the cumulative 57,579 cases reported as of Thursday, July 30.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Thursday, July 9, was 553, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 529, or about 56.9% of the 930 cumulative cases reported Thursday, July 30. The county has an estimated 377 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number has been steadily rising with new cases. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at a low of 358. Since then, hospitalizations have nearly tripled. Two weeks ago, health officials began warning repeatedly that some hospitals were running out of ICU beds. That warning has become more urgent as the numbers of cases continue to rise.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Tuesday, July 28, is 1,184. The number includes 982 with confirmed cases of COVID-19, a new high, and 229 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 296 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 178 were on ventilators. (MSDH had not updated hospitalization statistics for Wednesday, July 29, at this writing)

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.