Mississippi’s COVID-19 new case 7-day average may indicate a new surge


The seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases in Mississippi is about where it was a month ago, indicating the state may be seeing the beginning of a new surge in cases. Hospitalizations are also up this week.

State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs wrote Tuesday on Twitter that new COVID-19 cases included 300 students last week and more than 6,000 are under quarantine. “Our equilibrium is unravelling,” he warned. “We know what it takes if we will just do it.”

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported four new COVID-19 cases in Warren County Wednesday and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,443, and the county’s death toll is 52.

Statewide, MSDH reported 563 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 102,241. The seven-day average of new cases is 579, about 97% of where it was a month ago.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported Wednesday that 24 additional Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,051. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

MSDH reports 15 deaths occurred Aug. 13 and Oct. 5 in the following counties:

County Total
Benton 1
Bolivar 2
Coahoma 1
Desoto 1
Hancock 2
Harrison 2
Jackson 1
Marion 1
Pike 1
Rankin 2
Washington 1

Nine COVID-19 related deaths occurred between Sept. 13 and Sept. 30 and were identified from death certificate reports.

County Deaths identified from death certificate reports
Copiah 1
Hinds 2
Jasper 1
Leake 1
Newton 1
Scott 1
Tunica 1
Washington 1

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 7. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continued to drop in September but levelled off at the middle of the month. They continued to drop in October; however, they have shown a rise this week.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Monday, Oct. 4, is 588, less than half of the late July peak of more than 1,200. The number includes 455 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 133 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 125 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 58 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 90,577 through Sunday, Oct. 4. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 89% of the cumulative 102,241 cases reported Wednesday, Oct. 7.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Wednesday, Sept. 16, was 1,362, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,310, or about 90.8% of the 1,443 cumulative cases reported as of Wednesday, Oct. 7. The county has an estimated 81 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Oct. 3, is 863,957 or about 29% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) was 4.4% Tuesday according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 4.7% and 5% indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 124 Wednesday. About 40.8%, or 1,244, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

A total of 25 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data here. The latest data available is for the week ending Sept. 20.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.