Mississippi’s new COVID-19 cases over 2,000 again Thursday; Warren County cases up significantly

Mississippi adds a second consecutive day of reporting more than 2,000 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, the ninth consecutive day of reporting more than 1,000 cases. In Warren County the seven-day average is now more than triple that of early November.

State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs, head of the Mississippi State Department of Health, has reported hospitalizations are nearing the July high of around 1,250. Unlike the July surge, however, more patients are hospitalized with confirmed cases than ever before in the state. The state’s seven-day average of new cases remains over 1,600 per day, with 11,654 new cases reported in the last week. The seven-day average high in July was around 1,360 for the week ending July 30.

Nationally, at least 2,885 people died of the virus Wednesday and at least 199,988 new cases were reported, putting the cumulative total of cases in the U.S. at more than 14 million. While some progress in lowering case numbers has been seen in the Midwest, cases continue to surge almost everywhere else in the country. The number of people hospitalized across the nation now exceeds 100,000.

In Warren County, MSDH reported 19 new COVID-19 cases Thursday and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,849, and the county’s death toll is 58. The seven-day average of new cases in the county has risen to 15.4, about triple that of early November.

Statewide, MSDH reported 2,168 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 159,036. The seven-day average of new cases is 1,665 per day, about 966 cases higher — more than double — than the seven-day average a month ago, when the state’s numbers were already on the rise. The current averages exceed the numbers seen in July.

At the beginning of the crises, the age group with the most COVID-19 cases were those over 65. Now, most new cases are seen in younger people who are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. In September, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi were 18 to 24 years old. That has shifted to a slightly older group. In November, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are from 25 to 39 years old followed by those 50 to 64 years old.

MSDH reported Thursday that 28 more Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,879. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.5%. This rate has dropped as the number of cases are going up faster than the number of deaths at this time.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day in Mississippi was 67 reported Aug. 25.

Of the 28 deaths MSDH reported Thursday, 27 occurred between Nov. 26 and Dec. 2 in the following counties:

One additional COVID-19 related death occurred Nov. 19 in Rankin County and was identified from a death certificate report.

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, Dec. 2. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations tripled by late July.

Hospitalizations then steadily dropped through Oct. 3 when they began rising again along with increased cases. The last week in October, hospitalizations began levelling off; however, since Nov. 4 hospitals have seen a steady rise in COVID-19 patients once again.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 1, was 1,135, about 95% of the late July peak of about 1,200. The number includes 1,040 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 95 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 264 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 138 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 128,746 through Sunday, Nov. 29. It represents about 84% of the cumulative 159,036 cases reported as of Thursday, Dec. 3.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Thursday, Nov. 12, was 1,634, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,576, or about 85.2% of the 1,849 cumulative cases reported as of Thursday, Dec. 3. The county has an estimated 215 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Nov. 28, is 1,315,279 or about 44.2% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. MSDH reports statewide test results once a week. Without daily updated numbers of tests, it is impossible to accurately calculate Mississippi’s positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average); however, the estimated rate was 24.2% Wednesday, according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 10.5%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 188 Thursday, a decrease of 11 since Wednesday. About 37.8%, or 1,467, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in LTC facilities is 7,830, less than 5% of the state’s total cases.

A total of 26 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data by provider here. The latest data available is for the week ending Nov. 15.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.