New COVID-19 cases in Mississippi top 1,000 again Friday; 25 new cases in Warren County

New COVID-19 cases reported Friday in Mississippi topped 1,000 for the second consecutive day. As Mississippi found out this summer, as new cases rise, so do hospitalizations, and both have been rising steadily since the beginning of October. The state’s seven-day average is nearly at 800.

Mississippi isn’t alone in seeing cases rise. As a whole, the nation is seeing a 25% rise in new case seven-day averages, WJTV reported Thursday, with New Mexico, Vermont, New Hampshire, Montana and Connecticut leading the way. Only two states, Hawaii and Maine, have seen drops in new cases in the past week.

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 25 new COVID-19 cases Friday in Warren County — the highest single-day count since August — and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,511, and the county’s death toll is 54.

Statewide, MSDH reported 1,116 new COVID-19 cases Friday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 109,255. The seven-day average of new cases is 796, higher by 306 cases from a month ago.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported Friday that nine additional Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,160. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.9%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

MSDH reported Friday that deaths occurred between Oct. 3 and Oct. 15 in the following counties:

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 15. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations nearly tripled by late July. They leveled off in early August and began noticeably dropping in the middle of the month including critical cases and numbers of people requiring ventilators. Hospitalizations continued to drop in September but levelled off at the middle of the month. They dropped again through Oct. 3; however, hospitalizations have been showing a rise since then.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 14, is 598, about half of the late July peak of more than 1,200. The number includes 481 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 117 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 145 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 72 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 94,165 through Sunday, Oct. 11. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 86.2% of the cumulative 109,255 cases reported Friday, Oct. 16.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Friday, Sept. 25, was 1,405, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,351, or about 89.4% of the 1,511 cumulative cases reported as of Friday, Oct. 16. The county has an estimated 106 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Thursday, Oct. 15, is 900,479 or about 30.3% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) was 6.3% Sunday according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 5.2%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 128 Friday. About 40.3%, or 1,275, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

A total of 25 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data here. The latest data available is for the week ending Sept. 27.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.