New statewide COVID-19 cases fall below 1,000 Thursday; Warren County adds 14 cases

Mississippi saw the number of new COVID-19 cases fall below 1,000 Thursday for the first time in four days.

In Warren County, the Mississippi State Department of Health reports another 14 new COVID-19 cases Thursday but no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in the county to date is 776, and the county’s death toll is 23.

Statewide, MSDH reports 982 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 48,053. The seven-day average for new cases is 1,181.

MSDH reports Thursday that another 13 Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide, bringing the total number of deaths in the state to 1,436. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%, a rate that has been falling very slowly for a few weeks.

The numbers of deaths can lag new cases by two weeks or more, which may be one reason deaths in the state had not risen dramatically until July 7 when 44 deaths were reported. In addition, most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported deaths in the following counties Thursday:

Deaths and new cases were reported as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, July 22. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR) to date is 414,684 or about 13.9% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate of positive results to total tests is 11.5% indicating Mississippi is not testing enough, and results are probably an undercount of actual infections.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 170. About 46.7%, or 671, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. In Warren County as of Friday, July 17, MSDH reported that Shady Lawn Health and Rehabilitation and The Bluffs Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center are under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks. Shady Lawn has two COVID-19 cases among staff, three cases among residents and one resident death, The Bluffs has three cases among staff. Deaths in the county include nine residents of Heritage House Nursing Center, which is no longer under investigation.

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 30,315 through Sunday, July 19. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 63% of the cumulative 48,053 cases reported as of Thursday, July 23.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Thursday, July 2, was 463, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 440, or about 56.7% of the 776 cumulative cases reported Thursday, July 23. The county has an estimated 313 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number has been steadily rising with new cases. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at a low of 358. Since then, hospitalizations have nearly tripled. Last week, health officials began warning repeatedly that some hospitals were running out of ICU beds. That warning has become more urgent and the numbers of cases continue to rise.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Tuesday, July 21, is 1,165, another record high. The number includes 942 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 223 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 303 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 138 were on ventilators. (Hospitalization statistics for Wednesday, July 21, had not been provided at the time of this writing.)

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.