Seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases continues to drop; Warren County reports seven new cases

Across Mississippi, the seven-day average of new cases continues to drop as fewer than 1,000 new cases were reported Saturday.

In Warren County, the Mississippi State Department of Health reported seven new COVID-19 cases Saturday and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in the county to date is 1,173, and the county’s death toll is 37.

Statewide, MSDH reported 825 new COVID-19 cases Saturday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 71,755. With six of the last seven days reporting fewer than 1,000 cases, the seven-day average of new cases is 730.

MSDH reported Saturday that 37 Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide, bringing the total number of deaths in the state to 2,080. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3%. The rate had been holding steady for at least two weeks at 2.8% but has now risen slightly.

The numbers of deaths can lag new cases by two weeks or more, which may be one reason deaths in the state had not risen dramatically until July 7 when 44 deaths were reported. In addition, most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported deaths in the following counties Saturday:

Six confirmed COVID-19 related deaths occurred between July 30 and Aug. 6, identified from death certificate reports. The additional deaths were reported in the following counties:

Deaths and new cases were reported as of 6 p.m. Friday, Aug. 14. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number has been steadily rising with new cases. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at a low of 358. Since then, hospitalizations have nearly tripled. They have leveled off in the past couple of weeks; however, three weeks ago, health officials began warning repeatedly that some hospitals were running out of ICU beds. That warning has become more urgent as the number of critical cases continued to rise.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 13, is 1,107. The number includes 946 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 161 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 312 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 179 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 49,836 through Sunday, Aug. 9. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 69.5% of the cumulative 71,755 cases reported as of Saturday, Aug. 15.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Saturday, July 25, was 842, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 805, or about 68.6% of the 1,173 cumulative cases reported Saturday, Aug. 15. The county has an estimated 331 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR tests) as of Wednesday, Aug. 12, is 509,380 or about 17.1% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) is about 23.1%, according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating Mississippi is not testing nearly enough, and results are probably an undercount of actual infections. The national rate is currently 6.9%, and a rate of 5% or less indicates adequate testing. Mississippi’s positivity rate has been the highest or among the highest in the nation for more than a week.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 173 Saturday. About 42.8%, or 892, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. Twenty-one of the 37 deaths reported Saturday were in long-term care facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 13, MSDH reported that three long-term facilities were under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks:

• Shady Lawn had seven cases among staff, 32 cases among residents and eight resident deaths.
• The Bluffs had 10 cases among staff, 32 cases among residents and three resident deaths.
• Vicksburg Convalescent had 11 cases among staff, four cases among residents and no resident deaths.

A total of 18 deaths in the county were residents of LTC facilities.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.