Warren County reports its 36th COVID-19 death Thursday; statewide seven-day new case average dips below 800

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Warren County reported its 36th COVID-19 death Thursday, the 11th death this month. Statewide, the number of new cases reported was less than 1,000 again, bringing the seven-day average below 800.

In Warren County, the Mississippi State Department of Health reported 14 new COVID-19 cases Thursday and one new death. The cumulative number of cases in the county to date is 1,151, and the county’s death toll is 36.

Statewide, MSDH reported 612 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 69,986. With four of the last seven days reporting fewer than 1,000 cases, the seven-day average of new cases is 798.

MSDH reported Thursday that 22 Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide, bringing the total number of deaths in the state to 2,011. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.9%, a rate that had been holding steady for at least two weeks but has now risen slightly.

The numbers of deaths can lag new cases by two weeks or more, which may be one reason deaths in the state had not risen dramatically until July 7 when 44 deaths were reported. In addition, most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported deaths in the following counties Thursday:

Deaths and new cases were reported as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 12. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number has been steadily rising with new cases. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at a low of 358. Since then, hospitalizations have nearly tripled. Three weeks ago, health officials began warning repeatedly that some hospitals were running out of ICU beds. That warning has become more urgent as the number of critical cases continues to rise.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 11, is 1,148. The number includes 972 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 176 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 323 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 195 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 49,836 through Sunday, Aug. 9. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 71.2% of the cumulative 69,986 cases reported as of Thursday, Aug. 13.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Thursday, July 23, was 776, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 740, or about 64.3% of the 1,151 cumulative cases reported Thursday, Aug. 13. The county has an estimated 375 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR tests) as of Tuesday, Aug. 11, is 506,353 or about 17% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) is about 19.8%, according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating Mississippi is not testing nearly enough, and results are probably an undercount of actual infections. The national rate is currently 7.8%, and a rate of 5% or less indicates adequate testing. Mississippi’s positivity rate has been the highest or among the highest in the nation for more than a week.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 178 Thursday. About 42.9%, or 864, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. Ten of the 22 deaths reported Thursday were in long-term care facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 6, MSDH reported that three long-term facilities were under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks:

• Shady Lawn had seven cases among staff, 32 cases among residents and eight resident deaths.
• The Bluffs had nine cases among staff and 27 among residents.
• Vicksburg Convalescent had 11 cases among staff and four among residents.

A total of 18 deaths in the county were residents of LTC facilities.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.