Warren County reports no new COVID-19 cases and no deaths Monday

For the first time in nearly two months, the Mississippi State Department of Health reports no new COVID-19 cases in Warren County Monday and no new deaths. The last time the county saw no increases was May 18. The cumulative number of cases in the county to date is 600, and the county’s death toll is 21.

As of Thursday, July 9, MSDH reports that Shady Lawn Health and Rehabilitation, The Bluffs Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center and the Vicksburg Convalescent Center are under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks in Warren County. Shady Lawn has one COVID-19 case among residents, The Bluffs has two cases among staff and Vicksburg Convalescent has one case among staff. Deaths in the county include nine residents of Heritage House Nursing Center, which is no longer under investigation.

Statewide, MSDH reports 393 new COVID-19 cases Monday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 36,680.

MSDH reports that one Mississippian died of COVID-19 statewide Monday in Monroe County, bringing the total number of deaths in the state to 1,250. About 48% of the state’s deaths were people in long-term care facilities. The state’s mortality rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 3.4%, a rate that has been falling very slowly for a few weeks.

The numbers of deaths can lag new cases by as long as two weeks or more, which may be one reason deaths in the state had not risen dramatically until July 7 when 44 deaths were reported. In addition, most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the largest age group reporting cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

Deaths and new cases were reported as of 6 p.m. Sunday, July 12. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 25,932 through Sunday, July 12. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 70.7% of the cumulative 36,680 cases reported as of Monday, July 13.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, on June 22, was 331, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county July 13 is 310, or about 51.7% of the 600 cumulative cases reported Monday, July 13. The county has an estimated 269 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

(MSDH did not report county-level COVID-19 data from June 18 to June 21. On June 22, the agency reported 51 new cases in Warren County for five days. To calculate estimates for presumed recovered and active cases, The Vicksburg Daily News is adding 10 cases for the next four days and 11 cases for the fifth day.)

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number has been steadily rising with new cases. This week, health officials warned repeatedly that some hospitals were running out of ICU beds.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Friday, July 10, is 909. The number includes 703 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 260 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 202 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 107 were on ventilators. (MSDH did not update hospitalizations for July 11 or July 12 at this writing.)

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.