Warren County sees sixth COVID-19 death in August

Warren County reported another death Wednesday, the sixth COVID-19 death since the beginning of the month, and the fourth consecutive day reporting deaths.

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 19 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday in Warren County and one new death. The cumulative number of cases in the county to date is 995, and the county’s death toll is 31.

Statewide, MSDH reported 1,245 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 63,444.

MSDH reported Wednesday that 51 Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide, the second-highest one-day death toll since the crisis began, bringing the total number of deaths in the state to 1,804. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.8%, a rate that has held steady for several days.

The numbers of deaths can lag new cases by two weeks or more, which may be one reason deaths in the state had not risen dramatically until July 7 when 44 deaths were reported. In addition, most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported deaths in the following counties Wednesday.

Nineteen confirmed COVID-19 related deaths occurred between July 11 and July 29, identified from death certificate reports. The additional deaths were reported in the following counties:

Deaths and new cases were reported as of 6 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 3. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number has been steadily rising with new cases. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at a low of 358. Since then, hospitalizations have nearly tripled. Two weeks ago, health officials began warning repeatedly that some hospitals were running out of ICU beds. That warning has become more urgent as the numbers of cases continue to rise.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Monday, Aug. 3, is 1,164. The number includes 963 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 201 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 314 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 173 were on ventilators.

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 42,391 through Sunday, Aug. 2. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 66.8% of the cumulative 63,444 cases reported as of Wednesday, Aug. 5.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Wednesday, July 15, was 616, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 585, or about 58.8% of the 995 cumulative cases reported Wednesday, Aug. 5. The county has an estimated 379 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR tests) as of Friday, July 31 (the last time MSDH updated testing numbers), is 460,594 or about 15.5% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) is about 25.8%, according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating Mississippi is not testing nearly enough, and results are probably an undercount of actual infections. The national rate is currently 7.6%, and a rate of 5% or less indicates adequate testing. Mississippi’s positivity rate has been the highest or among the highest in the nation for more than a week.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 173 Wednesday. About 43.7%, or 789, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. Nineteen of the 51 deaths reported Wednesday were in long-term care facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, July 30, MSDH reported that four long-term facilities were under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks:

• Belmont Gardens has one case among staff.
• Shady Lawn has seven cases among staff, 31 cases among residents and three resident deaths.
• The Bluffs has eight cases among staff and 24 among residents.
• Vicksburg Convalescent has 11 cases among staff and 11 among residents.

A total of 13 deaths in the county were residents of LTC facilities, including nine residents of Heritage House Nursing Center, which is no longer under investigation.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.