Warren County spared so far from huge COVID-19 increases seen elsewhere

During the current surge in new COVID-19 cases nationwide, Warren County has so far been spared from the huge increases seen elsewhere in the state and around the country. The county’s 14-day average remains at a low 5.3 cases, and the last death was reported on Oct. 26, 11 days ago.

Nationwide, the U.S. reported a record of at least 121,000 new cases Thursday and 1,108 new deaths. On a 14-day average, the nation’s cases have increased by 54% and deaths by 8%.

In Warren County, the Mississippi State Department of Health reported six new COVID-19 cases Friday, and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in Warren County to date is 1,606, and the county’s death toll is 56.

Statewide, MSDH reported 967 new COVID-19 cases Friday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 124,854. The seven-day average of new cases is 788.3, about 211 cases higher than a month ago.

Most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported Friday that 14 more Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide. The cumulative number of deaths in the state is 3,419. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.7%.

Deaths are a lagging indicator. While July saw the highest number of new cases since the crisis began, August saw the highest number of deaths. The highest number of deaths in any one day was 67 reported Aug. 25.

Of the 14 deaths MSDH reported Friday, eight occurred between Nov. 3 and Nov. 5 in the following counties:

Six COVID-19 related deaths occurred between Oct. 13 and Oct. 30 and were identified from death certificate reports.

New cases and deaths were reported to MSDH as of 6 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 5. MSDH usually reports statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number rose steadily with the rise of new cases in July and August. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at 358. Hospitalizations tripled by late July.

Hospitalizations then steadily dropped through Oct. 3 when they began rising again along with increased cases. The last week in October, hospitalizations began levelling off.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 4, was 640, more than half of the late July peak of about 1,200. The number includes 537 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 103 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 154 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 76 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 105,839 through Sunday, Nov. 1. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 84.8% of the cumulative 124,854 cases reported as of Friday, Nov. 6.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Friday, Oct. 16, was 1,511, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 1,455, or about 90.6% of the 1,606 cumulative cases reported as of Friday, Nov. 6. The county has an estimated 95 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR and antigen tests identifying current infections) as of Saturday, Oct. 31 (the latest statewide testing results reported by MSDH), is 1,049,479 or about 35.3% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. Without daily updated numbers of tests, it is impossible to accurately calculate Mississippi’s positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average); however, the rate was 13.9% Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University. The national rate is 7.2%, and 5% or lower indicates adequate testing.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities was 113 Friday. About 39.4%, or 1,346, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities.

A total of 26 deaths in Warren County were residents of LTC facilities.

MSDH is no longer reporting outbreaks in individual long-term care facilities in Mississippi and has replaced it with access to a database from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid. You can access and search the data here. The latest data available is for the week ending Oct. 25.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.