Warren County’s COVID-19 case count tops 1,000; statewide new cases under 1,000 Thursday

Warren County’s cumulative COVID-19 cases topped 1,000 Thursday, while Mississippi’s new cases numbered fewer than 1,000 for the third time in the past week.

The Mississippi State Department of Health reported 12 new COVID-19 cases Thursday in Warren County and no new deaths. The cumulative number of cases in the county to date is 1007, and the county’s death toll is 31.

Statewide, MSDH reported 956 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases in Mississippi to 64,400. The seven-day average of new cases is 974.

MSDH reported Thursday that 21 Mississippians died of COVID-19 statewide, bringing the total number of deaths in the state to 1,825. The state’s rate of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.8%, a rate that has held steady for several days.

The numbers of deaths can lag new cases by two weeks or more, which may be one reason deaths in the state had not risen dramatically until July 7 when 44 deaths were reported. In addition, most new cases are seen in younger people recently, and they are more likely to survive the virus than those 65 and older. By far, the age group reporting the most cases in Mississippi are young people from 18 to 29 years old.

MSDH reported deaths in the following counties Thursday.

Deaths and new cases were reported as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 5. MSDH usually reports new statistics on the COVID-19 coronavirus each day based on the previous day’s testing and death reports.

The primary metric concerning state health officials are the numbers of people hospitalized, and that number has been steadily rising with new cases. On June 6, the number of Mississippians hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19 was at a low of 358. Since then, hospitalizations have nearly tripled. Two weeks ago, health officials began warning repeatedly that some hospitals were running out of ICU beds. That warning has become more urgent as the numbers of cases continue to rise.

The number of Mississippians hospitalized for the virus as of 6 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 4, is 1,179. The number includes 970 with confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 209 people with suspected but unconfirmed cases. Of those with confirmed infections, 329 were critically ill and in intensive care units and 192 were on ventilators.

Source: MSDH

MSDH has estimated the number of people who can be presumed recovered from COVID-19 in Mississippi. That number is 42,391 through Sunday, Aug. 2. This figure is updated weekly. It represents about 65.8% of the cumulative 64,400 cases reported as of Thursday, Aug. 6.

The number of cases in Warren County three weeks ago, Thursday, July 16, was 649, therefore the estimated number of people presumed recovered in the county is 618, or about 61.4% of the 1,007 cumulative cases reported Thursday, Aug. 6. The county has an estimated 358 active cases.

These estimates are based on MSDH’s guidelines for calculating estimated recoveries when hospitalizations are not known, using the number of cases 21 days ago, less known outcomes (deaths).

The total number of Mississippians tested for COVID-19 (PCR tests) as of Wednesday, Aug. 5, is 481,443 or about 16.2% of the state’s 2.976 million residents. The positivity rate (positive results to tests, seven-day average) is about 22.1%, according to Johns Hopkins University, indicating Mississippi is not testing nearly enough, and results are probably an undercount of actual infections. The national rate is currently 7.6%, and a rate of 5% or less indicates adequate testing. Mississippi’s positivity rate has been the highest or among the highest in the nation for more than a week.

The total number of outbreaks in long-term care facilities is 173 Thursday. About 43.8%, or 800, of the state’s total deaths were people in long-term care facilities. Eleven of the 21 deaths reported Thursday were in long-term care facilities.

In Warren County as of 6 p.m. Thursday, July 30, MSDH reported that four long-term facilities were under investigation for active COVID-19 outbreaks:

• Belmont Gardens had one case among staff.
• Shady Lawn had seven cases among staff, 31 cases among residents and three resident deaths.
• The Bluffs had eight cases among staff and 24 among residents.
• Vicksburg Convalescent had 11 cases among staff and 11 among residents.

A total of 14 deaths in the county were residents of LTC facilities, including nine residents of Heritage House Nursing Center, which is no longer under investigation.

For additional information, visit the MSDH website.