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ERDC research aims to model, combat respiratory infections
Dr. Sergey Vecherin, a research physicist with the ERDC’s Cold Regions Research and Engineer Laboratory, is the principal investigator of the Infection Risk Assessment on Military Installations (IRAMI) project, which aims to quantify the spread of infections and evaluate their impact on military personnel. He is joined on the project by fellow ERDC researchers Dr. Christopher Cummings and Dr. Igor Linkov, both from ERDC’s Environmental Laboratory, and Dr. Charles Ehlschlaeger from ERDC’s Construction Engineering and Research Laboratory.
By estimating the time, intensity and overall duration of a respiratory infection outbreak, the tool will allow decision-makers to make informed choices regarding mitigation policies, such as mask mandates, capacity reductions, closure of common areas and social distancing, among others.
When completed, the methodology is expected to be able to predict the number of personnel present at work each day during an infection outbreak, and even go so far as predict how many personnel will be sick, healthy, quarantined, asymptomatic, symptomatic or recovered.
“With this methodology in hand, decision makers will know what to do and what policy to implement, if any,” said Vecherin. “They’ll also be able to determine if they have enough resources — personnel in most cases — to conduct a given mission. For example, if only five people will show up at work when the infection is at its peak, is that enough to run the mission?”
The U.S. Army’s Fort Huachuca in Arizona will serve as the pilot site for the project, which is funded by the Office of the Assistant Chief of Staff for Installation Management’s Installation Technology Transfer Program.
“The final product will be used by Fort Huachuca first, with the goal of disseminating the matured methodology to other installations,” said Vecherin.
The project recently kicked off with a workshop at Fort Huachuca where the research team presented its methodology, discussed its potential usefulness to base commanders and outlined the data needed to run future predication models.
“The methodology received a warm reception during the kick-off meeting, with engaged discussions about its utility and future steps and implementation,” said Vecherin.
The project’s next step is to receive data from Fort Huachuca needed to build models for barracks and other common microenvironments such as public gyms, shopping plazas, restaurants and cafeterias.
While the project is focused on infectious outbreaks on military installations, its findings could ultimately be used to predict and mitigate infections, including but not limited to COVID-19, in public settings across the globe.
“The application of this methodology is not limited to military installations, as it can be adapted to any workplace facing the risk of person-to-person infection spread,” said Vecherin. “While initially demonstrated on COVID-19, the methodology can be recalibrated to predict the spread of other infectious diseases, including the flu, RSV and more.”