Tropical Storm Francine to hit landfall Wednesday

VICKSBURG, MS. – Tropical Storm Francine is forecast to gain strength and become a hurricane in the western Gulf of Mexico ahead of a likely landfall in Louisiana Wednesday. Storm surge, flooding rainfall, damaging winds and tornadoes will impact Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast and South.

According to the National Weather Service, here is what to expect for Vicksburg on Wednesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain before 10pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 10pm and 4am, then rain after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Thursday’s current forecast calls for rain, mainly before 11am. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 73. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

In a statement made by Entergy Mississippi the company state “Entergy Mississippi crews and contractors are ready to respond safely and swiftly, working long hours if necessary to restore power after the storm.”

H​ere’s the latest status of this system:

Francine is centered approximately 400 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, and is moving slowly north-northwest. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph as of 7 a.m. CDT, making Francine a strong tropical storm.

M​ost of the rain from this system is still offshore, but some bands have wrapped into parts of South Texas and the northern Gulf Coast.

Where watches and warnings are in effect

A hurricane warning is in effect along the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle. Areas from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana are in a storm surge warning.

These warnings are typically issued when hurricane conditions (74+ mph winds) and life threatening storm surge are likely within the next 36 hours.

Tropical storm watches and warnings also cover much of the rest of the western and northern Gulf Coast from northeastern Mexico to the Alabama-Mississippi border. New Orleans is included in a tropical storm warning, meaning sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are expected there within 36 hours.

The map below shows where hurricane and tropical storm watches and/or warnings are currently in effect.

Forecast track and intensity

Francine is forecast to continue strengthening before it makes landfall as a hurricane somewhere along the Louisiana coast later Wednesday, with impacts arriving well in advance. R​ight now, the National Hurricane Center forecasts Francine to be a Category 2 at landfall.

A pool very warm Gulf water favors this intensification. Dry air has been a limiting factor for strengthening since Monday night, but Francine is forecast to make renewed run of intensification later Tuesday into Wednesday. Once Francine reaches the Gulf Coast, it will also face increasing wind shear that may cap off its intensity near landfall.

A​fter landfall, the system will spread rainfall through parts of the South to as far north as the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys late this week.

P​otential Impacts

F​looding Rainfall

B​ands of heavy rain will lash parts of the coast from South Texas to Louisiana, Mississippi and southern Alabama on Tuesday and will continue in some areas near the coast through Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Francine could reach 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday morning. Authorities have issued flood watches for several cities, including New Orleans, Lake Charles, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, as well as Biloxi, Mississippi, due to the heavy rain threat.

Heavy rain from Tropical Storm Francine will spread across other parts the South to as far north as the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys into late week. At least localized flooding is possible in these areas.

T​here could be a sharp difference in rainfall, however, to the west and northwest of Francine’s path as drier air may be drawn in. Areas not too far inland from the Texas coast may pick up little or no rainfall.

S​torm Surge

L​ife-threatening storm surge will build and inundate low-lying areas along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts beginning Tuesday night.

A​ccording to the National Hurricane Center, peak inundation of may reach 5 to 10 feet in parts of southern Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay, if the storm surge arrives at the time of high tide.

This peak push of water is expected to arrive within a few hours either side of landfall later Wednesday. However, some parts of the Gulf Coast as far east as Mobile Bay may see at least some coastal flooding linger into Thursday morning.

Follow the advice of local officials if ordered to evacuate.

D​amaging winds

H​urricane conditions could arrive within areas under hurricane warnings in southern Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon. Complete all preparations in those areas by Tuesday night, when tropical storm force winds could begin.

These winds will be capable of downing trees and knocking out power in southern Louisiana. Prepare now for power outages that could last for several days after the storm is over in this area.

S​ome tropical storm force winds are possible near the South Texas coast, other parts of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi and the far upper Texas coast. Some scattered power outages and tree damage is possible in these areas, including in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

P​ossible Tornadoes

L​andfalling tropical cyclones often produce a few tornadoes near and inland from where they cross the coast. An isolated tornado threat from Tropical Storm Francine could develop by Wednesday or Wednesday night in southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

T​he isolated tornado threat may persist Thursday in eastern Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

F​irst In Awhile

F​rancine was the first Atlantic storm since Ernesto moved into the North Atlantic Ocean on August 20.

I​t’s been 30 years since the last time the Atlantic Basin went through the first full week of September without any active tropical cyclones, according to WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach noted the last time the Atlantic Basin went from Aug. 13 though Sept. 8 without any storms forming was in 1968.