Tropical Storm Rafael to strengthen into Hurricane, Significant uncertainties in long-range forecast

VICKSBURG, Miss. – Tropical Storm Rafael is moving through the western Caribbean and will intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday before entering the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions will become less conducive for the system to hold that intensity later this week according to the National Weather Service.

Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near Jamaica, and is moving northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Bands of heavy rain are currently training over Jamaica. Winds in the country’s capital, Kingston, have gusted between 30 and 40 mph.

Rafael will become a hurricane later today, possibly before it arrives in the Cayman Islands, then will strike western Cuba before moving into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

As the storm moves toward the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, unlike Helene and Milton, it’s expected to encounter conditions that would weaken it, rather than strengthen it. That’s an environment more typical of November than the peak of the hurricane season.

However, a tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. But overall, the forecast remains highly uncertain.

“The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast,” the NHC said Monday.